• Whenever you see correlated debt and conditional loans like this it’s time to panic.

    The impact of these things are almost never modelled for failure correctly, and so their impact is much much higher than a regular default.

  • 5 days

    Not hidden. Sitting there openly. That is always true for bubbles.

  • So what happens to all this hardware when this comes crashing down due to unsustainability? I mean they are already losing so much money if anyone fully uses their subscription. And if they raise prices, people will stop using it completely. I’ll pay $20 a month. I will not pay $1000 a month.

    I mean if there is a fire sale I could put a few of these NVIDIA DGX B200 in a lab 🥹

    • 4 days

      It won’t crash. You have to understand the background here. This is critically important to win for the US since they believe it’s the future of the world. Whoever wins this wins the world, basically.

      I dont think that’s true, personally. But they believe it. So it’s not allowed to crash, with the US government behind it. Too big to fail.

    • The cost will come down in 3 generations a lot, but the 1to3 trillion spent now to then will be worthless.

  • Like the whole world economy’s foundation is the belief in AGI.

    Happen or not, but if it does not happen, this whole thing would be very funny and painful in retrospective

    • 5 days

      The moment AGI is achieved it’s going to be a glorious destruction of society. Companies will lay off people and replace them with AGI and completely ignore the fact that no one will have money to buy anything. What we’re seeing now is just a fractional microcosm of what will happen.

      • The moment AGI is achieved it’s going to be a glorious destruction of society.

        Specifically, if ultra affordable AGI that also happens to be acceptably reliable.

        Which is certainly a pipe dream, today. It might or might not ever get any more possible.

        To be economically viable, AGI needs to cost less than the people it supposedly replaces. Sure, we can all think of a couple of over-priced Word document slingers.

        But ask someone who wanted to buy a conveyor belt or a barcode scanner for a factory in an emerging market…until the technology costs dramatically less than local seasoned professionals, the technology just doesn’t get bought.

        Now, I do imagine there’s a few specific use cases that billionaires are very interested in replacing humans - because humans as morally empty and worthless as Epstein and Thompson (rest in piss) may actually be hard to find.

      • Still it is very dangerous. You need to engineer war or something like that in order to guarantee the safety.

        It is highly unlikely that amazon drones will be repurposed to kill all humans or guard data centers.