• 1 post
  • 20 comments
Joined 4 months ago
Cake day: February 18th, 2026
  • Someone at Sony is feeling very smart and modern right now, totally unaware that PlayStation is now a dead brand walking.

    They are a strong brand, but that’s not going to be enough to justify a definitely-$1k+ PS6 compared to increasing handheld and console-like gaming options that are not locked down ecosystems. Their exclusives likely can’t save them, they have been dying out already.

    Physical media was one of the few remaining differentiators for hardcore collectors and loyalists. Even if I’m sure it’s a greatly diminished part of their bottom line, it’s a psychological anchor that justifies the existence of a console. Now their console will be just another extremely handicapped and uncompetitive digital box, even if (as recently reported) they copy the Switch dockable format.

  • Mine is en route, but seeing the videos and early reviews, I think I’ll leave mine unopened for a bit and give them more time to create an interface and get the rest of the software done.

    I agree, it’s disappointing, but I am still cutting them some slack since it’s still a very affordable and nice-looking MISTer box, and I do think they’re acting in good faith but just in over their heads (with overoptimistic time lines).

    I was most disappointed to see the flimsy Superdock drive, however, since they took so much time and that’s a design flaw that won’t get better without a hardware rev.

  • OpenAI and Anthropic’s IPOs +2-4 weeks is my best guess for when the market starts sliding. Investor money is already drying up, but too many rich people haven’t cashed out yet, helping themselves (like SpaceX) to our index retirement funds to countersign withdrawals at the inflated valuations.

    I’m on the fence after that if it’ll happen slow or fast. Possible we’ll get a Bear Stearns/Lehman type failure that brings down the world’s markets, after a major player no longer has a blank check at multi-billion/quarter burn rates, and hits insolvency like a freight train. But also likely it could unravel more slowly like a sweater, as de-escalating levels of market access pull on the thread in turn.

  • Don’t doom too much about this headline. HBM contracts represent artificial AI demand. When the bubble pops (and it will pop), the HBM demand evaporates and it’s back to competing for consumers. That said, there will be a very slow ratchet to get back to consumer-competitive prices, because as component costs go down, additional companies will be “priced in” to speculative AI business models, even if hyperscalers and other AI-drunk multinationals are backing off.

    Regardless of whether there is a bubble, though, AI spending is ludicriously, unsustainably inflated even from existing memory customers. They are purchasing one-time AI infrastructure that needs to last a decade to even have a remote chance of paying off the hardware investments. There are only a few companies that can afford current AI pricing, those companies have already played their hands and paid for allocations, and they will not keep purchasing at this pace even in their own best case scenarios.

    Regulation could keep consumer prices down, but of course we’re in the bad Trump timeline and that won’t happen until at least 2028. Assuming the bubble pops before then, the key to resetting this “new normal” is to NOT purchase anything you do not need to until we’re back to $80-130 / 64GB or cheaper, like it was in 2025. Hold out, make them desperate to lower prices.

  • I’d be curious to know your logic why renting is cheaper than buying.

    To explain: Even disregarding that a later sale price is an intrinsic inflation recoup, paying a mortgage also means any principle is recouped on sale, meaning only interest is the actual monthly “rent” after a sale, maybe decades later. Finally it’s rare property value doesn’t go up, which also reduces the costs. Despite all these benefits, you still found renting and investing the difference gave better returns?